By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Patient readers, after an unexpected piece of good news, I broke discipine and took a (solo, Aranet4-metered) liquid lunch, so this Water Cooler is shorter than it should be, at least initially. Sorry. –lambert. Adding, my seized-up back is better, although not completely. The personal anesthetic helped, though! And adding, holy moley, that Boeing story (see under Stats). I got a little wrapped around the axle doing it. But my head is down over the keyboard now!
Bird Song of the Day
Winter Wren, Ferd’s Bog, Hamilton, New York, United States. “Long song type.”
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order (Eighth Amendment)
“Jeb Bush comes to Trump’s defense after $355M fraud judgment: ‘Damage could cascade’” [FOX]. “Former Republican Florida Gov. Jeb Bush came to the defense of former President Trump in a Wall Street Journal op-ed slamming the recent New York civil fraud court case that ordered the 45th president to pay a $354.8 million fine plus interest. ‘Every American has a right to be critical of Mr. Trump’s politics—one of us ran against him in 2016,” reads Bush’s op-ed, titled, “Elon Musk and Donald Trump Cases Imperil the Rule of Law.’ ‘…But equality before the law is precious, and these rulings represent a crisis not only for the soundness of our courts, but for the business environment that has allowed the U.S. to prosper,” the opinion piece continued. ‘If these rulings stand, the damage could cascade through the economy, creating fear of arbitrary enforcement against entrepreneurs who seek public office or raise their voices as citizens in a way that politicians dislike.’ The column, which was co-authored by Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale, railed against the recent monthslong civil fraud trial against Trump, which resulted in a nearly $355 million fine and bars Trump from operating his business in New York for three years.” • Palantir? Oy. Getting into bed with Jebbie is one thing, but it turns out he brought a friend….
“Judge Engoron’s retribution” [Washington Examiner]. “A frequently made observation about the trial was that inflating the on-paper value of real estate is a rather common thing among New York City developers. Engoron seemed to concede that when he wrote, ‘Indeed, the common excuse that ‘everybody does it’ is all the more reason to strive for honesty and transparency and to be vigilant in enforcing the rules.’ That seemed to be a concession that yes, overvaluing real estate is not a rare occurrence. It also appears to be an inadvertent admission from the judge that the lawsuit was an example of selective prosecution.” • At some point, some opinion-haver needs to go through Engoron’s theory of the case. All this piety about “the harm that false statements inflict on the marketplace.” Sounds like exactly the sort of argument the worst sort of business-friendly conservative could pick up and run with.
2024
Less than a year to go!
* * * Trump (R): “Fani Willis faces harrowing week amid Trump disqualification bid: What to know” [Washington Examiner]. The headline is a bit overblown, at least for the material it presents. Key summary: “Trump and the 14 remaining co-defendants are facing a 41-count indictment alleging they operated a criminal enterprise to overturn the 2020 election. Willis’s office built a case that relies on several key events that allegedly show the former president’s intention to overturn the election, including a January 2021 call in which he asked Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to ‘find’ enough votes to offset President Joe Biden’s victory.”
Trump (R): “Abcarian: MAGA Republicans pushing to impeach President Biden don’t seem to notice the egg on their faces” [Los Angeles Times]. “Republicans thought they had a smoking gun, a claim by a longtime, reliable FBI informant that Biden and his son Hunter had secretly accepted millions of dollars from the Ukrainian natural gas company Burisma. Unfortunately for Planet MAGA — including House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer of Kentucky, impeachment resolution author Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and the entire lineup of Fox News hosts, who have been frothing at the mouth over this story — it was allegedly all a lie. The smoking gun is turning out to be an exploding cigar. And the informant? Not so reliable after all. Last month, a federal grand jury indicted Alexander Smirnov, 43, on charges he lied when he told the FBI that the Bidens had gotten $5 million each from Burisma. Not only that, according to special counsel David Weiss, who is overseeing the probe into Hunter Biden’s finances, Smirnov was probably coached to create the story by operatives associated with Russian intelligence in an effort to hurt President Biden as he faces reelection, most likely against Putin apologist former President Trump.” • So, if I have this correct, a long-time reliable FBI informant (nobody seems to be disputing that part), turns out to be a Russian asset? I’m not following this story closely, because I’m still boggling at “Smirnov,” but isn’t a little odd?
* * * Trump (R): “Trump’s demographic problem” [Axios]. “If America were dominated by old, white, election-denying Christians who didn’t go to college, former President Trump would win the general election in as big of a landslide as his sweep of the first four GOP contests…. Those who went to the polls reflected Trump’s strengths: This was the oldest South Carolina GOP electorate this century. (Chuck Todd) 60% of primary voters were white evangelical or born-again Christians. (CNN) That group isn’t remotely big enough to win a presidential election. He would need to attract voters who are more diverse, more educated and believe his first loss was legit. South Carolina exit polls show he didn’t do that. That’s why Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the Senate’s only Black Republican, remains on Trump’s short list for V.P A bigger problem yet: Polls show these skeptics would be even less likely to swing his way if he’s convicted of a crime — a real possibility among his four ongoing cases, insiders tell us. The strategy: Trump’s campaign says that in the battleground states where the election will be decided, his message will appeal far beyond the GOP base that propelled him to the nomination.” • This is where I am. There’s a pleasing symmetry: Neither Trump’s base nor the Democrat PMC base are powerful enough to win the election or, more importantly, to govern. The “bundle of sticks” metaphor is useful: Each party needs to add sticks to its bundle (and neither party, oddly, is going after non-voters. You’d think the Trump team would think that way, but maybe the disciplined professionals of 2024 can’t think outside the box like the randos of 2016 could).
Trump (R): “Donald Trump’s dominating GOP primary performance doesn’t add up” [Heather Digby Parton, Salon]. “There is a substantial faction of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters who simply cannot stand Donald Trump. Yes, he is overwhelmingly popular among his MAGA base which makes up about three-quarters of the GOP and the majority of them are blindly devoted to the man no matter what he does. They are not just enthusiastic about voting for him, they are ecstatic…. Donald Trump can’t win the general election with just his hardcore MAGA base. He must expand his coalition and he’s not getting that done. In every state so far, he has underperformed expectations. Nevada was a very weird situation with both a primary and a caucus so it’s hard to discern what the electorate was saying there but in Iowa, New Hampshire and S. Carolina, a solid 40% voted against Trump. It’s a primary so that’s not unusual. But who makes up that 40% is a problem for Trump. He’s completely lost self-identified liberals which isn’t surprising. But moderates have abandoned him as well, along with the GOP-leaning independents. And the ongoing shedding of college educated and suburban voters has not abated. It doesn’t matter so much in the MAGA-centric GOP primary, but Trump cannot afford to lose those voters in the general election.” • With a link to the Axios article above. Parton, of course, as a good Democrat, doesn’t consider appealing to non-voters any more than good Republicans do.
* * * Haley (R): “Nikki Haley says she’s a voice for dissatisfied voters: ‘I’m not doing this to be VP’” [USA Today]. “Haley’s not giving up, despite losing every primary contest thus far to former President Donald Trump. The former South Carolina governor and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations has chosen to continue standing for the significant number of Americans who aren’t satisfied with the current front-runners. In South Carolina, she garnered roughly 40% of the vote, as she did in New Hampshire.” If you think the social norming among Republicans to vote for Trump is as strong as the social norming not to mask, then 40% is not a bad number. More: “‘I’m a Republican,’ she said. ‘At this point I don’t know how you translate that over. The reason people are gravitating towards me is because the tone at the top matters and how you talk about issues matters. . They don’t want the division.” That’s interesting. But I’m not sure Haley has the gravitas to deliver that message (any more than, say, Harris, or Philips). Trump tried the rhetoric on for size, briefly. So it’s out there. More: “‘And so I’m trying to bring it to where we can have an America that doesn’t have that. But that’s through the Republican Party that I do this. So we’ll have to wait and see.’” As Dima would say. More: “”m not doing this to be VP. I’m not doing this to be a third-party candidate. I’m not doing this for my political career. I’m doing it truly out of a love of America. And because I’m worried about my kids and everybody else’s kids.’” • Again, Haley lacks the gravitas to make that message stick. And the media needs the hatred, too. Hate means clicks.
* * * Biden (D): “Biden’s immigration silver lining” [Axios]. “Foreign-born workers now constitute nearly 19% of the labor force, up from 17.3% when President Biden took office. The recent surge in unauthorized migrants will lead to 1.7 million more workers in 2024, according to a recent Congressional Budget Office analysis. Those new arrivals will help the U.S. economy grow by about $7 trillion over the next decade. More than 3 million migrants are still in the country who were encountered at the southern border during the Biden presidency. An additional one million arrived via ports of entry through new Biden programs relying on the expansive use of parole — a legal mechanism that allows migrants without visas to enter the U.S. An additional 3.7 million people have entered the U.S. through other legal pathways, with the ability to work, according to administration estimates. Some of those new arrivals are captured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which counts an additional 3 million foreign-born workers in the workforce under Biden. Don’t expect Biden to race to the podium to highlight the link between increased immigration and lower inflation, according to aides and advisers.” Then again: “Former President Trump clearly wants to run on the issue, arguing that the influx of low-skilled immigrants into the economy has hurt native-born workers.
‘The biggest victims are African-Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans,’ Trump said at a rally in South Carolina earlier this month. ‘They’re getting decimated in their hourly wages.’ Wage growth has been the strongest for the bottom quarter of workers, according to the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker. It’s hard to argue that immigrants are depressing wages when average hourly earnings are increasing and wages are outpacing inflation.” • No, it’s really not. Do the words “even more” mean anything do these people? How about that famous demand curve?
Biden (D): “Michelle Obama: September Savior or ‘Suicide Mission’?” [The American Conservative]. Well worth a read. Best version of this argument I’ve seen: “Forget about doctors; anyone who has cared for an aging parent with cognitive decline can see all the signs and knows what is coming next. Joe can’t remember words, names, or dates, and walks stiffly with his arms locked. He falls often. He gets angry and cusses. It is all there. We all know what is being hidden, just like when Mom refuses her food or rages someone is after her money. It is not a pleasant thing to watch, this infantilization of a person you may have once looked up to, but the decline is obvious, and decline is a one-way street. It hurts, it really does, whether it is Mom or Joe Biden, to watch it all knowing there is nothing that can be done… It is one thing to explain away Mom’s behavior at the dinner-table, another when addressing national security…. If Joe is unfit to stand trial for his casual misuse of classified documents, then he is unfit to be president.” And as for Michelle: “Michelle Obama has the popularity and name- and face-recognition to step in at the last minute for a tired placeholder Joe. September is “the last minute,” given the 50 sets of laws governing how much time is needed to add a candidate to the ballot and still make mailing deadlines for absentee votes. Her own lack of experience is tempered by Barack’s eight years, and, indeed, a quiet selling point among Dems would be that this is indeed a third term for some sort of Obama administration. With Obama’s popularity and bullet-proofing against accusations of racism, no one will worry at all about sweeping Kamala Harris aside, perhaps with the promise of a nice university job to show no hard feelings. Celebrity endorsements would pour in headlined by Oprah and Taylor Swift and someone near immune to Trump’s personal insult style of campaigning would take the rostrum against him. It would be a close election.” • Again, the best version of this argument I’ve seen. I’m not sure Michelle Obama wants this. And whatever The Wizard of Kalorama™ thinks he was put on this Earth to do, I would bet it’s not putting his wife in the White House. The Clintons, yes. FWIW, I don’t get those vibes from the Obamas.
Biden (D): “Democrats are too scared of a contested convention” [Financial Times]. “The odds that this coming August we will have the first Democratic contested convention since 1968 are non-trivial. Were Joe Biden persuaded either to step down, or suffered some forcing medical event, the party would have no choice but to prove history really does rhyme by finding a new standard-bearer in Chicago…. It is easy to picture how it could go disastrously…. Yet I can also picture something quite different; a successful contested convention that rivets the nation’s attention and produces the stuff of Trump’s nightmares — a much younger and more vibrant rival. Whether that would be an unbound and rebooted Kamala Harris, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, or one of the male governors, is anybody’s guess. It is worth stressing though that technology would ensure the process would not be closed-door. It could not be a sordid deal between party bosses. Chicago 2024 would be a democratic exercise of a different kind.” • Totally, yeah, technology. Remember the Democrat Iowa caucus in 2020? Anyhow, Big Gretch does have some local clout, and that spook-orchestrated kidnapping stunt means she’s got backers somewhere, but… “vibrant”? I dunno. Michiganders?
* * * MI: “Biden Will Win Michigan Easily. It May Also Show His Weakness” [The New Republic]. “The Michigan primary is Tuesday, and there won’t be much drama as far as who the winners, on either side, will be—Joe Biden and Donald Trump are locks. But there is something brewing on the Democratic side that could prove to be consequential. It’s not who’s on the ballot: Biden is, of course, sharing it along with Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips. Marianne Williamson will be on it as well because she qualified for a ballot line before she dropped out of the race. The box to keep an eye on is the fourth: ‘uncommitted.’ This is the space that political insiders will be watching, and it will determine the narrative flowing out of Michigan. Right now, there’s a lot of general concern among Democrats about Biden’s age, and in the Great Lake State specifically, there is considerable concern about Biden’s pro-Israel tilt in his handling of the Israel-Gaza war, and a movement afoot to deny him support over it. If all roads lead to an unusually large ‘uncommitted’ vote, what Democratic insiders are still now only whispering—that maybe Biden shouldn’t be the nominee—will only grow more audible. The outcome could signal not only that some voters are mad about Gaza, but that others simply don’t want Biden because of his age.”
* * * Remember the pandemic? Good times:
Near and dear to my heart and work: The 3 rounds of stimulus checks for a family of four totaled $11,400—almost 1/5 of the median family income or 1/4 of the Black median family income. Wow!
That’s massive relief in a massive crisis. Going big, fast, and broad was critical.
— Claudia Sahm (@Claudia_Sahm) February 27, 2024
I think the popular perception is the real one: Trump gives, and Biden taketh away. The CARES Act “put money in your pocket.” The American Rescue Plan, for all its laudable objectives, did not. There’s Bidenomics, right there. Plus, Joe Biden owes me six hundred bucks.
#COVID19
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Elite Maleficence
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Again, no backward revisions. The uptick is real (at least to Biobot). Note this anomaly:
Looks like Covid might not be seasonal? Who knew? Hoerger comments:
Bad News: Biobot #wastewater levels are still rising.
Historically, February is marked by a rapid decline in transmission. 929 copies/mL corresponds to 1.35 million infections per day in the U.S. pic.twitter.com/tRvRhU9xA9
— Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) February 20, 2024
And Region 2:
Verily data, then, shows no anomaly. Presumably, Biobot sewersheds and Verily sewersheds do not overlap.
[3] (CDC Variants) “As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell. [4] (ER) Does not support Biobot data. “Charts and data provided by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the past year, using a rolling 52-week period.” [5] (Hospitalization: NY) Not flattening. [6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. [7] (Walgreens) That’s a big drop! It would be interesting to survey this population generally; these are people who, despite a tsunami of official propaganda and enormous peer pressure, went and got tested anyhow. [8] (Cleveland) Flattening, consistent with Biobot data. [9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Down, albeit in the rear view mirror. [10] (Travelers: Variants) About time for something to challenge JN.1. But what’s “other”? Something to look forward to, I guess!Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Durable Goods Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured durable goods in the United States slumped by 6.1% month-over-month in January 2024, more than market expectations of a 4.5% fall and following a 0.3% decrease in December. ”
Manufacturing: “United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The composite manufacturing index in the US Fifth District area increased to -5 in February 2024 from -15 in January.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Missing Key Elements of Safety Culture: FAA Report” [Aviation International News]. “The panel further reported that it could not find a “consistent and clear” safety reporting channel or process within the business unit. It also noted that employees do not understand how to use the different reporting systems and which reporting system to use and when. The panel expressed concern that the confusion might discourage employees from reporting what they see as safety problems. The report concluded that, although Boeing previously provided a roadmap to implement an Organization Designation Authorization (ODA) and safety management systems (SMS), the airframer still hadn’t completed the changes described in the roadmap.” • For more on ODA systems, see Leeham News linked to here. Key point from Leeham:
The FAA doesn’t have the resources to do all the certification activities necessary to keep up with an expanding aviation industry.
The FAA gets help using [Organization Designation Authorization (ODA) Unit Members (UMs)] who report to the FAA] for routine tasks allowing the FAA to focus its limited resources on safety critical certification issues as well as new and novel technologies. Designees come from private industry. They are experts in the aviation and medical communities who are familiar with the regulations and certification requirements necessary to issue a certificate. Individual Designees can either be a company employee or an individual consultant.
Examples of such experts might be mechanics, doctors, engineers, inspectors, and pilots. All designees must pass a rigorous screening process to be approved to act in the FAAs capacity in a limited scope. The FAA delegates to approved individuals and companies every task they do. Think of it as a force multiplier in that private industry is doing a very significant amount of the FAA’s work.
Now see the FAA Report–
Manufacturing: “Section 103 Organization Designation Authorizations (ODA) For Transport Airplanes Expert Panel Review Board” (PDF) [Federal Aviation Administration]. Stupidly:
Hence, the screen dump from page 36:
Shorter: Boeing employees muscled the UMs (ODA Unit Members) to make production quotas, wrecking safety. Hat tip, all those pencil-necked MBAs in Chicago! This behavior is going to be hard to weed out, and I very much doubt that the [genuflects] Obama-administration lawyer they just put in charge of HR to bust the unions will be up to the task. Interesting times for our national champion!
Transportation: “Norfolk Southern is bolstering its board as it seeks to fend off a shareholder-activist group waging a proxy battle against the freight railroad” [Paul Page, Wall Street Journal]. “The company is looking to add former Amtrak and airline executive Richard Anderson and former U.S. senator Mary Kathryn “Heidi” Heitkamp to its board of directors as investor group Ancora Holdings presses its own effort to overhaul Norfolk Southern’s leadership through its roughly $1 billion stake in the carrier…. Ancora’s slate of new directors includes former Ohio Gov. John Kasich and that it wants to install former United Parcel Service executive Jim Barber and former CSX official Jamie Boychuk in the top two management posts. Norfolk Southern warns in its proxy materials that . That’s a potentially precarious path for the railroad, which faces intense regulatory scrutiny over a toxic train derailment early last year.” • Moar PSR?
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 76 Extreme Greed (previous close: 75 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 66 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Feb 27 at 1:02:13 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 187. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this category.” More honest than most! • Apparently not concerned about the goat sacrificers at all?
News of the Wired
“Botanical gardens can cool city air by an average of 5 °C” [The New Atlas]. A meta-study. Handy chart:
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Late Introvert:
Readers, I should recognize this. But I don’t! What is it? (Looks like a beautifully lush and dense garden, from the background. NOTE Not a criticism but a helpful hint for more pleasurable picture-taking: The subject does not have to be in the center, even if your camera tries to get you to do that. See the Rule of Thirds for a more dynamic composition. Like all rules, meant to be broken. But I found that all my photos improved as soon as I started looking at the whole frame.)
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